A refined NHL defense breakout model now targets blueliners likely to deliver true fantasy impact beyond sporadic scoring, focusing on age, experience, and a first sustained FPPG above a historical median. It flags defenders entering a true breakout window (roughly 23–27 years old, 170–380 games) who can push into top unit minutes and PP time, while accumulating hits and blocks that translate to fantasy points.

Among the names highlighted: Bowen Byram, Jamie Drysdale, Dylan Samberg, and K’Andre Miller, plus others who could unlock a real late-round upside if opportunity aligns. The framework aims to separate true contributors from depth players, guiding drafts with data-backed confidence.

Pettersson, Shesterkin and Klingberg emerge as top positive regression candidates for 2025-26, with Pettersson eyeing a return to 30+ goals and 80+ points amid a fresh Canucks start, Shesterkin rebounding behind a steadier Rangers lineup, and Klingberg potentially reviving his PP quarterback role in San Jose. On the downside, Wilson, Walman and Kuemper carry clear regression flags: Wilson’s goal rate looks unlikely to hold, Walman’s role may shrink, and Kuemper could drift toward an average starter.

These projections hinge on health, coaching changes, and lineup stability, then translate into concrete fantasy implications: draft around risk-reward for goaltending with Kuemper, and target players like Pettersson and Shesterkin where firm performance anchors are likely despite surrounding team turbulence. The article places these players in a realistic context for 2025-26 rosters and DFS/casual fantasy planning.